Backgrounder on Nuclear Disarmament and Challenging Increases in Military Spending, January 2020

Backgrounder on Nuclear Disarmament and Challenging Increases in Military Spending, January 2020

The United States and Russia possess over 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons (each holding >6,000), while other nuclear states each have fewer than 300. Because of their dominant arsenals, the U.S. and Russia are expected to lead nonproliferation efforts, but growing distrust, shifting geopolitics, new technologies, and nonstate actors have strained those expectations and weakened the global arms-control framework.

Erosion of key arms-control agreements, growing mistrust between nuclear and nonnuclear states, and major planned increases in U.S. nuclear and military spending have raised alarms about renewed arms racing and higher nuclear risks. Extending verifiable limits such as New START is presented as an immediate, pragmatic step to preserve transparency and a basis for future negotiations, while moral and policy actors urge redirecting resources toward human development and diplomacy rather than expanded militarization.

Recent treaty setbacks

• The U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in May 2018, removing a multilateral mechanism designed to limit Iran’s nuclear program.
• The U.S. withdrew from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in August 2019, eliminating prohibitions on ground-launched missiles with ranges of 500–5,500 km and reviving the possibility of redeploying thousands of short- and intermediate-range systems.
• New START, the 2010 treaty that caps deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and delivery systems at 700 and provides inspections and data exchange, faces expiration in February 2021; the U.S. administration declined a simple five-year extension and prefers negotiating a new, broader agreement that would include China — an impractical near-term option given time constraints.

Costs and military spending trends

• The U.S. plans to modernize and expand parts of its nuclear arsenal, including new sea-based low-yield options.
• The Congressional Budget Office projects roughly $500 billion over the next decade to maintain and replace the U.S. nuclear force (a 23% rise over 2016 projections) and estimates costs could exceed $1.5 trillion over 30 years.
• The 2020 National Defense Authorization Act authorizes nearly $750 billion for military programs (about 15% more than FY2018).
• The U.S. defense budget exceeds the combined spending of the next seven highest spenders. Within the federal budget, military spending is the second-largest category after Social Security.

Moral and political voices

• Bipartisan U.S. leaders historically have supported disarmament: Reagan warned nuclear war cannot be won; Obama committed to pursuing a world without nuclear weapons.
• Pope Francis (and previous popes) has condemned nuclear arms and rising militarism, arguing that arms races waste resources better used for human development and environmental protection, and calling for reduced distrust and renewed arms-control efforts.

USCCB position and policy steps

• The U.S. bishops assert the U.S. must work to prevent the spread of WMDs and reduce reliance on them, supporting progressive nuclear disarmament.
• The Committee on International Justice and Peace endorses bipartisan bills H.R. 2529 and S. 2394, which express congressional support for extending New START unless Russia materially breaches it or a stronger replacement is agreed; the bills also require reporting and certifications to inform public debate and congressional oversight.

Backgrounder-on-Nuclear-Disarmament-and-Challenging-Military-Spending-2020-01.pdf